This year, we’ve seen an increasing number of Bitcoin predictions for a price of $100,000 by 2021.
That’s not particularly unusual. A lot of folks in the Bitcoin community have been making sky-high Bitcoin predictions for years. Cybersecurity pioneer John McAfee, for instance, has for two years been calling for Bitcoin to reach $1 million by the end of 2020.
But the Bitcoin forecasts I’m talking about are coming from a group with Wall Street-level credibility – analysts, investors, and traders with experience in the universe of stocks, bonds, commodities and foreign exchange trading.
I find this notable because Bitcoin’s loudest critics often dismiss those who buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as idiots who lack the investing IQ to make better choices.
In May, Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff, a well-known gold bug, said this:
“A bunch of young inexperienced kids are going to be dumb enough to buy Bitcoin. Maybe they will. But as they get older they’re going to learn better.”
Economist Nouriel Roubini, who achieved fame by correctly predicting the 2007-2008 housing bubble, said in an early July interview that most Bitcoin enthusiasts are “completely and totally ignorant of basic economics, finance, money, banking, central banking, and monetary policy.”
But that’s certainly not how one would describe the Wall Street-savvy people I’ve recently noticed predicting a Bitcoin price of $100,000 or more.
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These financial veterans were already successful in the traditional world of investing. They didn’t need to risk getting involved with something as new and unproven as Bitcoin. But each recognized the immense potential of Bitcoin and made the leap.
And given their collective knowledge of the investing world, the fact they’re each forecasting a Bitcoin price of $100,000 by 2021 should make every investor sit up and take notice.
Let’s look at these Bitcoin price predictions one by one…
Four Bitcoin Predictions from Veteran Wall Street Analysts
Peter Brandt, Veteran Commodity Trader
Brandt is an unlikely Bitcoin prognosticator.
At 72, he’s been a professional investor since the late 1970s. He’s been CEO of his own proprietary trading firm, Factor LLC. He’s written two well-received books, “Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns” in 1990 and “Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader” in 2011.
It was because of his charting expertise that Brandt got interested in Bitcoin. In January 2018, just one month after Bitcoin reached its all-time high, Brandt correctly predicted an 80% pullback.
This year, Brandt has been making the case for another bull run.
“Bitcoin takes aim at $100,000 target,” Brandt tweeted on June 21. “$btcusd is experiencing its fourth parabolic phase dating back to 2010. No other market in my 45 years of trading has gone parabolic on a log chart in this manner. Bitcoin is a market like no other.”
Paul Chou, CEO at LedgerX
A graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chou founded two tech startups and worked as a trader at Goldman Sachs for four years before moving on to found LedgerX.
LedgerX is a Swap Execution Facility (SEF) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) specializing in the custody and trading of cryptocurrency derivatives. In June, the company received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer physically settled Bitcoin futures contracts.
As of July 17, LedgerX started offering a call option on Bitcoin that allows investors to bet on the cryptocurrency hitting $100,000 by December 2020 – a full year before most similar Bitcoin forecasts. But it appears some big players – LedgerX’s institutional customers – now expect such a leap in the price of Bitcoin.
“Dozens and dozens of these institutions got back to us saying we’d be interested in trading a contract like this,” Chou told Bloomberg. “I understand $100,000 is a large number, but a lot of us who’ve been in this space remember Bitcoin at $1, and then it hit $10 and $100 and $10,000. A $100,000 contract doesn’t even make us blink.”
Mark Yusko, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management
Prior to creating Morgan Creek Capital Management, Yusko spent two decades managing endowments for the University of Notre Dame (1993-1998) and the University of North Carolina (1998-2004). Morgan Creek is primarily an investment adviser firm that serves institutions and wealthy families.
The company created Morgan Creek Digital Assets in 2018 to provide access to crypto- and blockchain-based investments to its clients. (This unit is managed by Anthony Pompliano, an outspoken Bitcoin bull known as “Pomp” on crypto Twitter. In a June 24 post, Pomp wrote in his blog that he is 70% to 75% confident Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by Dec. 31, 2021.)
Yusko made his prediction on CNBC‘s “Fast Money” on July 8.
“Over the past nine months, Bitcoin is up 70%. It’s the best-performing major asset class this year,” Yusko said. “I think we’re in the next parabolic move. That will take us into the $30,000 level before we get another little correction…. The path to $100,000 by 2021 is really quite easy to draw out.”
The consensus we’re seeing among these expert investors is striking.
But one Wall Street veteran not only expects Bitcoin to hit $100,000 within the next two years, his forecast calls for a price several multiples higher…
How High Can the Price of Bitcoin Go?
Dan Morehead, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Pantera Capital
Before founding Pantera in 2013, Morehead had an extensive Wall Street background that included time as a trader at Goldman Sachs, global head of foreign exchange options at Deutsche Bank, and CEO of Atriax, an electronic foreign exchange platform.
He created Pantera to focus “exclusively on ventures, tokens, and projects related to blockchain tech, digital currency, and crypto assets.”
In an interview last week on Laura Shin’s “Unchained” podcast, Morehead made a multi-year forecast based on a look at Bitcoin’s price on a logarithmic chart.
“Its trend has been to grow at a 235% compound annual growth rate,” Morehead said. “That put Bitcoin at $42,000 at the end of 2019. Which I know sounds crazy, but essentially we’re halfway back there… I think it’s a good shot that by the end of the year we hit that. And if you just extrapolate that line out for another year, it’s $122,000 per bitcoin and then one more year, $356,000.”
For those keeping score, a Bitcoin price of $356,000 by 2021 would represent a gain of 3,647% from the current price of about $9,500.
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